Lula wins a fourth term in Brazil, projections show, after overtaking Flávio Bolsonaro in a dramatic count

Update, 21:00 Brasília time (00:00 GMT Monday): President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term, according to a Datafolha projection and Bloomberg, after overtaking Flávio Bolsonaro in the second half of the count. With 86.41% of ballot boxes counted at 20:58 Brasília time, TSE data showed Lula with 51.45% of valid votes (54,957,812) against 48.55% for Flávio Bolsonaro (51,861,771), a lead of more than 3 million votes that outlets such as Piracicaba’s Pira Notícias described as mathematically impossible to reverse. The TSE’s formal declaration and statements from the candidates were still pending at the time of this update.

Earlier, at 20:26 Brasília time with 48.42% counted, the race had been neck and neck: Lula was back in front with 50.03% against 49.97%, a gap of just 41,053 votes.

Flávio Bolsonaro had led for most of the first half of the count: at 20:00 Brasília time, with about 20% counted, he had 50.41% against 49.59%, and at 30.82% counted his lead peaked at about 333,000 votes before narrowing.

Lula led the first returns. At 0.25% counted, he had 57.66% against 42.34%, and his lead narrowed with each update until Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, moved ahead at around 14% counted, according to Bloomberg Línea and InfoMoney. Early returns in Brazil often shift as results from different regions come in, so these partial figures do not indicate the final outcome.

A two-hour extension and a paused count

The day was marked by a legal fight over voting hours. Polls were due to close at 17:00 Brasília time, but Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, who also sits on the TSE, extended voting to 19:00 nationwide in an emergency ruling. Lula’s campaign had asked for more time, saying reduced bus services — especially in São Paulo and Salvador, Bahia — were preventing people from reaching polling stations; the PT cited a 31.4% cut in São Paulo’s bus fleet. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign separately requested extensions in 17 municipalities in São Paulo, Paraná and Santa Catarina affected by heavy rain, Latin Times and Infobae reported.

The TSE paused the release of results after counting had begun, with less than 0.3% of sections tallied, and resumed once the extended polls closed. Zanin later clarified that the extension applied only to polling stations that were still open, and ballot machines that had already been closed could not be reopened, according to InfoMoney and Infobae. Some stations in Salvador briefly reopened their gates after the decision.

Before the polls closed, Lula, speaking outside his home in São Paulo, accused unnamed businesspeople and mayors of trying to stop people from voting. Flávio Bolsonaro, voting in Rio de Janeiro in the morning, said: “The time for change has come.” Police in São Paulo state reported 17 arrests linked to the vote, including a voter who photographed their ballot.

Why it matters

The run-off follows an October 4 first round in which Flávio Bolsonaro finished narrowly ahead with 47.03% against 45.16% for Lula, who is seeking a fourth term at 80. Final polls showed a statistical tie. The result will shape Brazil’s direction and the regional balance in South America, and the next president takes office on January 5, 2027.

What is confirmed and what is pending

Confirmed: the voting extension to 19:00, the partial TSE figures cited above and the Datafolha projection of a Lula victory. Pending: the final count, the TSE’s official declaration, and statements from Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, including whether the challenger concedes. SagaTVec.lat will follow up.

Featured image: the flag of Brazil. Photo by Samuel Costa Melo on Unsplash (Unsplash License). Illustrative; it does not show Sunday’s vote.

Sources

• Bloomberg — Lula wins a record fourth term in Brazil in a surprise comeback
• Correio — Lula é reeleito presidente para quarto mandato, aponta Datafolha (Portuguese)
• Pira Notícias — Matematicamente, Lula está reeleito (Portuguese)
• Bloomberg Línea — Ao vivo: Brasil vota no 2º turno (Portuguese)
• InfoMoney — Ao vivo: TSE retoma apuração do 2º turno (Portuguese)
• Latin Times — Brazil’s presidential run-off thrown into uncertainty after Supreme Court extends voting
• Infobae — Elecciones en Brasil, en vivo (Spanish)
• The Rio Times — Brazil election results 2026: run-off live count

Mary del Castillo · International · Virtual editorial byline
English adaptation: Lin Wei · Editorial direction: Leonidas Ferraz · October 25, 2026 · AI-assisted writing